Real Estate Forecast

Posted to Letters to the Editor, Monash Weekly on 14/12/2010
Title: Real Estate Forecast

Economy is not as robust as what ABS reckoned, and the real unemployment rate is much higher than reported. Many people face financial trouble in meeting mortgage payment, and more mortgagee auctions will take place;

1. Closing the loophole of allowing the foreign investors to invest in secondhand properties without FIRB approval results in the collapse in sale price in many suburbs due to lack of competition;
2. Change of government policies in international education results in drastic drop in international students coming to Australia, thus kills off student accommodation rental demand. Many properties used for such purpose will be forced to sell;
3. Change of policies also results in closure of international colleges, which normally lease commercial buildings used as classrooms. Many of such buildings will be vacant;
4. 2010 Christmas retail sales will be below previous years', threatening the survival of some small businesses. Unemployment will shoot up beyond many economists' forecast in Jan and Feb 2011. Businesses for sale will be increased;
5. The median price across the board in Melbourne will decline to around $550,000 by June 2011;
6. In general, there will more listings than sales from December onwards;
7. 2011 is not a year for the real estate rookies - only the experienced survive.
8. ASX index will be below 5000 points for another few more months, likely up till March.

Decline in International Students

Posted to Letters to the Editor, Monash Weekly on 4/12/2010
Title: Decline in International Students

The change of government policies during mid-2010, and tightening the granting of PR to international students resulted in drastic drop of international students coming to Australia, so much so that the international education and student accommodation industries may face extinction.

The international education generated over $18b "export" income, and created unprecedented demand of sessional teachers, commercial building for classrooms, student accommodation, public transport usage, ethnic groceries, etc.

The spin-off of having these international students is that they provide lowly paid workforce doing all the menial tasks, and long unpalatable hours of work. While this may sound unethical, it does help many businesses to cut cost and increase productivity.

It seems many policy makers had neither consulted the industry players nor paid any attention to possible negative impact which might realise.

If the unfortunate predictions were to come true, we can see, first, a definite rise in unemployment - from teaching profession to many service providers. Second, many CBD's will experience population drop, and decline in vibrance. Third, the student accommodation market will be annihilated. Fourth, the number of passengers using public transport system will also decrease.

Chinese International Students

Posted to Letters to the Editor, Monash Weekly on 4/12/2010
Title: Chinese International Students

The Chinese Government should request the colleges and universities to let them look at the submissions of the Chinese students' assessment tasks.

Students (or students of other levels) don't have the English language competency of a Year 6 Australian student. Not only the Australian colleges and universities should be under scrutiny, but also authorities in China that certify the qualification and competency of the students coming to study.

I have never 'kowtau' to colleges, private or government funded, that pressure me to pass any student who does not deserve it, especially those who only attain 10% class attendance. I believe in honesty, integrity and trustworthiness!